腐草化萤代表什么（腐草为萤是循证决策还是拍脑袋）

“大暑连天阴，遍地出黄金”，大暑是一年之中最热的季节，高温、酷热、雷暴、台风频繁，极易发生干旱。如果在这个时节天降大雨，那么无论是庄稼还是牲畜、家禽，都可以有效解决饮水的问题，这就是一年一度最热的“大暑”。

对孩子们来说，炎热的大暑最美莫过于夜晚的星空下追逐漫天飞舞的萤火虫。看看那些在树阴之下，草丛之上，提着点点小灯笼，在夜色中游动的小精灵，似乎在寻找孩子们白天遗失的梦。在我小小的脑袋里面一直有个疑问，这些会发光的小家伙们到底是怎么来的呢？

《逸周书·时训》：“大暑之日，腐草化为萤。”古人的意思就是“腐草为萤”，说的是古人认为萤火虫是由腐草本身变化而成。《礼记·月令》篇：“季夏之月……腐草为萤”，《格物论》说：“萤是从腐草和烂竹根而化生”，《古今注》：“萤火......腐草为之”。《周书》《礼记》《格物论》《古今注》这么多名著都说腐草为萤，可见在古代这种观点是为大众所认同和流传的。忍不住要问一问，古人怎么会有这么奇怪的想法呢？明明萤火虫是产卵在水边的草根，潜伏土中，来年草蛹化成虫，就变成翩翩飞舞的萤火虫了。仔细想想也没什么好奇怪的，古代的科学技术和工具对微观世界的观察有局限，对生物的生命周期研究还不充分，人们只观察到从草根和土中飞出来，基于这样的信息作出了腐草为萤的判定也合情合理。

腐草为萤到底是循证决策还是拍脑袋呢？质量中所谓的“循证决策”就是基于对事实、证据和数据的收集、分析和理解，从而做更有信息的决策。这个过程比较复杂，也有很大的不确定性，因为对数据的理解和前因后果的分析，都要基于我们自己的知识和经验，所做的决策也是带有一些主观性的。所以，从这个角度来理解，腐草为萤确实是循证决策，也确实是拍脑袋，只是循证决策是相对合理一点的拍脑袋而已。

质量就在我们身边，万事万物相比较而存在、相竞争而发展。决策就是拍脑袋，有策划有逻辑有条理地收集整理数据、信息分析而做的决策，相对更靠谱，算是拍大脑袋。反之，如果没有任何准备和思考的拍脑袋，那就是吹牛皮了或者是瞎扯淡了！

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Major Heat is the hottest solar term in a year. High temperatures, extreme heat, thunderstorms and typhoons occur frequently and drought is easy to occur. If it rains heavily at this time of year, crops, livestock and poultry can effectively solve the problem of drinking water. This is the annual hottest "Major Heat". For children, there is nothing more beautiful than chasing fireflies flying all over the sky under the stars in the night of hot summer. In the shade of the trees, above the grass, the elves, with their little lanterns, swimming in the night, seemed to be looking for the dreams that the children had lost during the day. There was always a question in my little head that where did these little glow-in-the-dark creatures come from?

"On the day of Great Heat, the rotting grass becomes fireflies." This means that ancient people believed that fireflies were evolved from the rotting grass itself. In <Zhou Shu> ,< Li Ji> ,< Ge Wu Lun>, and so many famous works all said that the rotting grass was fireflies. Thus it can be seen that this view was recognized and circulated by the public in ancient times. I can't help asking, how could the ancients have such strange ideas? Fireflies lay their eggs in the grass roots at the water's edge and then lie in the soil. The next year, the grass pupa becomes a firefly. It is not surprising if you think about it carefully. Ancient science and technology and tools led to their limited observation of the microscopic world, and the study of the life cycle of organisms was not sufficient. Fireflies have only been observed flying from grass roots and soil, so it is reasonable to make a firefly judgement based on this information. Should it be an evidence-based decision or a guess? In quality, evidence-based decision-making means making more informed decisions based on the collection, analysis, and understanding of facts, evidence, and data. This process is complex, and is of great uncertainty. The understanding of data and the analysis of causes and effects are based on our own knowledge and experience, and the decisions we make are subjective. Therefore, from this perspective, "Rot is by fireflies" is indeed an evidence-based decision, and indeed a guess. To sum up, it's a relatively reasonable guess with evidence-based decision principle.

Quality is all around us. All things exist in comparison and develop in competition. The decisions made with planning and logic after data collection and information analysis are relatively more reliable. On the other hand, if speculation is without preparation and thinking, that is trumpeting or nonsense!

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