全球粮食危机意味着什么（决策者全球粮食危机愈发严重）

Editor's note: Decision Makers is a global platform for decision makers to share their insights on events shaping tODAy's world. Abdelkarim Sma is the lead regional economist for the Near East, North Africa and Europe division at the International Fund for Agricultural Development. Matteo Marchisio is the country representative of the International Fund for Agricultural Development in China. The article reflects the authors' opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

编者按：“决策者”(Decision Makers)是一个全球平台，供决策者分享他们对影响当今世界之事件的见解。阿卜杜勒卡里姆•斯玛是国际农业发展基金经济学家，马泰奥是国际农业发展基金驻华代表。文章仅代表作者的观点，而非本台观点。

Increasing world food crisis

全球粮食危机愈发严重

The ongoing raging war in Ukraine has set in motion a three-dimensional crisis on food, energy and fertilizers. Many nations are navigating unchartered waters since this crisis is producing alarming cascading effects on food security at a moment when the global economy is still trying to recover from the pandemic, another major global shock. The conflict is sending shockwaves into global commodity markets far beyond Ukraine's borders owing to the weight of the Russia-Ukraine conflict impacting those markets. Russia, in particular, is the world's top natural gas exporter and a major producer of grains and fertilizers. The upward trend in conflicts- and climate-induced humanitarian crises, such as the one caused by the recent massive flooding in Pakistan are adding on to the severity and urgency of the present-day situation.

俄乌冲突仍处于胶着状态，并引发了全球粮食、能源和化肥“三重危机”。新冠肺炎疫情严重冲击世界各国，如今全球经济仍处于艰难的复苏过程中。雪上加霜的是，俄乌冲突进一步冲击了全球粮食安全，许多国家的发展前景都不明朗。由于俄罗斯和乌克兰是全球商品市场上的重要生产国，这场冲突造成的影响并不局限于乌克兰国内，而是对全球商品市场造成了重大冲击。俄罗斯是全球最大的天然气出口国，也是谷物和化肥的重要生产国。冲突升级和由气候引起的人道主义危机，例如近期巴基斯坦的大面积洪灾，使局势变得更加严峻和紧迫。

There is an overall sense that the livelihoods of many people worldwide, including smallholder farmers, one of the most vulnerable groups in societies, are increasingly becoming a collateral damage in yet another major crisis for which they bear no responsibility. This dire situation is translating into noticeable setbacks facing the sustainable development goals (SDGs). The International Monetary Fund reckons that the pandemic alone is expected to erase up to five years of per capita income growth in Asia and the Pacific region with rural poverty head-counts and unemployment levels expected to edge up in nearly all countries.

人们普遍认为，全球许多人的生计正日益成为又一场重大危机的牺牲品，其中小农户作为最弱势的社会群体之一也深受影响，而他们对危机的产生不负有任何责任。在这种严峻的形势下，可持续发展目标的推进工作遭遇严重挫折。国际货币基金组织估计，仅疫情就会抹去亚太地区多达五年的人均收入增长，几乎所有国家的农村贫困人口和失业率都将上升。

Governments have enacted relief packages worth billions of U.S. dollars. Nonetheless, poor countries cannot afford this and remain highly dependent on external financial flows from both bilateral and multilateral channels.

各国政府陆续出台了价值数十亿美元的纾困方案。然而，经济落后的国家没有这样的实力，它们高度依赖来自双边和多边渠道的外部资金援助。

Unfortunately, the flows of development finance and official development assistance (ODA) in particular are facing serious headwinds. Those badly needed financial resources are getting increasingly diverted to short-term emergency responses at the expense of more long-term development investments. This, coupled with shrinking fiscal spaces and growing sovereign and private indebtedness, are but a few examples of the multiple megatrends shaping the rural development arena nowadays.

遗憾的是，发展援助资金的规模，特别是官方发展援助，正在日益缩小。这些急需的财政资源正越来越多地被用于短期应急响应，导致长期发展投资不足。此外，政府财政日益捉襟见肘、主权债务和私人债务高企等等这些都是影响当今农村发展的重大趋势。

Attaining food security is inherently complex given the ever-changing biophysical, trade policy, technological and geopolitical factors at play. Attaining food security in such a turbulent context is even more complex.

受不断变化的医疗卫生、贸易政策、科学技术和地缘政治因素的影响，实现粮食安全本身就很复杂。在如此动荡的环境下，通往粮食安全的道路则更为崎岖。

A rice field in Dongbai Village of Dongjituo Town, Ninghe District, north China's Tianjin, September 6, 2022. /Xinhua

China copes with global challenges

中国为应对全球挑战所做的努力

China's food production has been extraordinarily high for the past several consecutive years and that China maintains a high level of food self-sufficiency. Nevertheless, China's food imports have been rising over the past years.

中国的粮食产量连续数年保持较高水平，维持着较高的粮食自给水平。然而，同样不容忽视的是，中国的粮食进口在过去几年里持续增长。

As part of its food security strategy, Beijing has boosted efforts on the one hand by increasing domestic agricultural production to meet growing domestic demand, and on the other hand by diversifying imports – particularly to reduce its reliance on the U.S. Accordingly, China has increased imports from Russia, Central Asia and Eastern European countries. The Russia-Ukraine conflict will affect China's import diversification efforts.

为贯彻落实粮食安全战略，中国在不断加大努力，一方面提高国内农业产量以满足日益增长的国内需求，另一方面努力实现粮食进口来源多元化，尤其是减少对美国的依赖。根据这项战略，中国增加了从俄罗斯、中亚和东欧国家的粮食进口。俄乌冲突也给中国在实现进口粮食产地多元化方面的努力带来影响。

In the short term, the government may want to dip into its grain strategic reserves in order to guarantee food security and minimize inflation. A sudden and drastic rise in food prices could generate panic. In the medium to long term, the government could boost domestic production and achieve food self-sufficiency to reduce the risks from external shocks. China's investments in digital- and bio-technologies applied to agriculture may represent the way forward.

在短期内，政府可能会动用粮食战略储备，以保证粮食安全并最大限度地抑制通货膨胀。事实上，粮食价格的突然大幅上涨可能会引发恐慌。从中长期来看，政府可能会进一步提高国内粮食产量，努力实现粮食自给自足，以降低外部冲击风险。中国对农业数字技术和生物技术的投资指明了未来前进的方向。

In this context, special attention should be placed to the poorest and most vulnerable. It is in fact them who will be the most affected by food shortages or rising food prices. It is thus important that the country specifically supports the vulnerable groups by expanding social safety nets to protect them. In the long run, focus should be placed on strengthening the capacity of these groups to cope with and recover from shocks.

在这种情况下，应重点关注最贫困、最脆弱的社会群体。事实上，这些人往往将很容易遭受粮食短缺或粮价上涨的影响。因此，至关重要的是，国家应通过扩大社会保障网络来保护弱势群体，为他们提供专门的支持。从长远来看，应重点加强这些群体应对冲击和后期恢复的能力。

IFAD's solid partnership with China

国际农业发展基金与中国的稳固伙伴关系

As a significant investor into global food systems in order to shore up agriculture-based rural livelihoods, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) stands keen to partner with like-minded global players to ensure collective and timely crisis responses. Its longstanding and solid partnership with China and other member states has consistently prioritized tangible and innovative solutions to make inroads into persistent rural poverty, inequality and natural resource degradation.

作为全球粮食系统的重要投资者，国际农业发展基金致力于支持以农业生产为基础的农民生计，积极与志同道合的全球参与者合作，共同且及时地应对危机。国际农业发展基金与包括中国在内的成员国建立了长期稳固的伙伴关系，一直聚焦于切实可行的创新解决方案，以应对农村持续存在的贫困、不平等和自然资源退化等问题。

Over the past 40 years, IFAD and China have shared the same goals of eliminating rural poverty and promoting rural developments and have worked together to innovate and implement best practices.

40年来，国际农业发展基金与中国在消除农村贫困和促进农村发展方面有着共同的目标，并共同致力于创新和采取最佳实践。

We are striving to foster pro-poor agriculture and food policies while coupling them with a consistent delivery at scale of rural investments. The latter investments are bolstering the competitiveness, inclusion and resilience of agri-food value chains. We believe that this two-pronged approach is the best remedy against soaring food inflation in the medium to long run.

我们正努力制定一些有利于贫困人口的农业和粮食政策，同时统筹考虑稳定农村投资规模的政策。这些投资旨在加强农业食品价值链的竞争力、包容性和韧性。我们相信，这种双管齐下的方法是应对中长期粮食价格快速上涨的最佳措施。

Scaling up existing social safety nets and properly linking them to producer support mechanisms is also warranted as an effective short-term measure to cushion the impact of recent food commodity price increases and sustain the fledgling recovery. That said, the current episode of combined food, fuel and fertilizer shocks should not distract us from the looming climate change threats and the necessity to place agri-foods systems of developing countries onto a more sustainable pathway to contribute their fair share to achieve carbon dioxide emissionspeak by 2030.

扩大现有的社会保障网络，并将其与生产者支持机制适当联系起来，也可以作为一项有效的短期措施，以缓解近期粮食商品价格上涨所带来的影响，从而维持刚刚开始的经济复苏。虽然目前我们面临粮食、燃料和化肥价格“三重冲击”，但这不应分散我们对来自气候变化威胁的注意力，我们应当努力帮助发展中国家的农业粮食系统以实现更加可持续的发展，使其能够为2030年碳达峰目标贡献其应有的力量。