海洋会被重新定义（1000年后的海洋会怎样）

Oceans produce more than half of our oxygen (shoutout phytoplankton!) , absorb most of the heat from global warming, and covers 70% of our planet.

海洋产出超过总体一半的氧气 (多亏了浮游生物！)、吸收了绝大部分全球暖化造成的热能，并占据地球 70% 的表面积。

But they're also changing faster than ever.

但海洋也正以前所未有的速度不断变迁着。

So what will the ocean look like in 1000 or even 10,000 years from now?

那么，一千年，甚至一万年后的海洋会是什么样子？

Let's start with 30 years from now.

让我们从距今 30 年开始说起。

The number of fish in the Sea has dropped by 50% since 1970s.

自 1970 年以来，海里的鱼群的数量已经下降了 50%。

So maybe you should consider settling down with that dud, boyfriend or girlfriend because honey, there's not plenty of fish in the sea anymore.

所以或许你该考虑赶快与和那个打死不开口求婚的男朋友或女朋友定下来，因为亲爱的，海里可供你挑选的鱼已经不多啦。

In 30 years, there'll be more plastic in the ocean than fish by biomass, and species like sea bass, usually coming along north Carolina shores, will be up near New Jersey as marine life migrates to cooler waters.

30 年后，海洋中的塑胶总量将高于鱼类，而随着海洋生物逐渐移居至更凉爽的海域，像海鲈这样通常在北卡罗来纳州海岸出现的物种将在纽泽西附近出现。

Sea levels have actually risen 5 to 8 inches in the last 100 years and continue to rise.

在过去的 100 年里，海平面实际上已经上升了 5 到 8 英寸，并仍在持续上升。

By 2050, 190 million people will be facing a sinking city.

到了 2050 年，有一亿九千万的人们将面临所居城市被淹没的命运。

Ho chi Minh City will be below sea level, Alexandria in Egypt under water, and Mumbai, one of the largest and most densely populated cities in the world, submerged.

胡志明市将低于海平面、埃及的亚历山大城沉没入海，而世界上最大和人口最密集城市之一的孟买也将被淹没。

In just 30 years!

而这些全都发生在短短的 30 年之内！

Like I assume I'll still be alive to see this happen.

我想届时我应该还活着，能够亲眼看到这一切发生。

Seawalls could help, but as one scientist, Benjamin Strauss, Climate Central's chief executive said, how deep a bowl do we want to live in?

尽管修建海堤可能会有帮助，但正如科学家兼气候中心首席执行官班杰明·施特劳斯所说："在 100 年后，我们想生活在多深的碗里？"

100 years from now is where our most accurate scientific models predict until.

100 年后是我们的科学模型能精确模拟未来的极限。

100 years from now, if carbon emissions keep going up, there'll be a 2 to 3 foot sea level rise.

在距今 100 年之后，如果碳排放量仍持续提升，海平面将会升高 2 至 3 英尺。

A major reason for this rising is thermal expansion.

海平面上升的其中一个主要原因是热膨胀。

So warmer water actually takes up more space physically because of increased vibration.

由于水分子的振动会随着温度上升而增加，因此温暖的海水会占据更多的空间。

And yes, glaciers melting adds to this as well.

而没错，冰川的溶化也加剧了整个情况。

And as the oceans heat up, the great conveyor belt is slowing down.

随着海洋的升温，大洋输送带的流速也会变缓。

This current carries warm water from the tropics to the poles and vice versa, insulating Europe and North America from wilder weather.

这股洋流将暖水从热带地区带到极地，反之亦然，使欧洲和北美洲免受恶劣天气的影响。

If trends continue by 2100, the gulf stream will weaken by 34 to 45%.

如果到 2100 年这个趋势仍持续下去，墨西哥湾流将减弱 34% 至 45%。

A weaker conveyor belt means hotter summers in Europe and fiercer storms in the US;

大洋输送带减弱意味着欧洲的夏天会变得更热、美国的风暴变得更猛烈，

it means profound large-scale impacts on the planet in terms of weather patterns, upending agricultural practices, biodiversity, and economic stability across the vast areas of the world.

也意味着会在天气模式方面对地球产生深刻的大规模影响、颠覆农产业、生物多样性，以及世界广大地区的经济稳定。

Not only does the ocean provide food, medicine, mineral and energy resources, it also supports jobs and national economies, serves as a highway to transport goods and people, and plays a role in national security.

海洋不仅提供食物、药品、矿物和能源资源，还支持就业和国民经济、作为运输货物和人员的高速公路，并在国家安全中发挥重要作用。

A slower conveyor belt also means that silt and debris get carried and deposited differently.

大洋输送带的减弱也意味着淤泥和碎石以不同的方式被携带和沉积。

And over centuries of this, the landscape of the ocean floor will change to a muddy mess.

而过了好几世纪后，海底的景观将变成一片泥泞。

Ever heard of a seashell?

听说过贝壳吗？

Say bye bye!

和牠们说再见吧！

As we release more carbon dioxide, and the ocean's pH continues to decrease, animals that make shells like clams and oysters will struggle.

随着我们排放出更多的二氧化碳，以及海洋的 pH 值持续下降，如蛤蛎与牡蛎等会制作出蚌壳的生物将会难以生存。

Predictions for sea carbonate and pH conditions in 2100 showed that animals like the sea butterfly or pteropod, would lose their shell within 45 days.

根据对 2100 年海中二氧化碳浓度与 pH 值的预测，像海天使或翼足目这样的动物，将在 45 天内失去牠们的壳。

And the loss of these shells and skeletons would decrease the chalky layer of mineral that's there now, meaning more muddy mess vibes.

少了这些壳和骨架，将会减少海床上粉粒状的矿物层，并意味着海底变得更泥泞不堪。

And if we stay on the same emissions path by 2300, there will be a 26 foot rise in sea level.

而如果我们在 2300 年之前仍以同样的步调继续排放二氧化碳，海平面将会上升 26 英尺。

In 500 years from now, the sea could be suffocating, literally.

距今 500 年之后，整个海洋可能真的会全面窒息。

In the 1950s, there were around 50 dead zones in the ocean where oxygen was so low that nothing can survive.

在 1950 年代，海洋中约有 50 块氧气含量过低而使没有生物可以生存的死区。

Today there's around 500 dead zones in the ocean, and they're growing, covering millions of square miles.

在今天的海洋中大约有 500 个死区，而且它们仍在不断增加，覆盖了数百万平方英里的海域。

Warmer oceans hold less available oxygen, but as body temperature increases in animals, their metabolism increases and they actually require more oxygen.

温暖的海洋容纳了更少的可用氧气，但动物的体温增加也使得牠们的新陈代谢率增加，让牠们实际上需要更多的氧气。

Fishing and fish farming, support the livelihoods and families of some 660 to 880 million people.

捕鱼和养鱼业支持着大约 6 亿 6 千万至 8 亿人的生计和家庭。

That's 12% of the world's population.

这相当于世界人口的 12%。

Any change to the ocean ecosystem has a direct impact on so many people.

海洋生态系统的任何变化都会对许多人产生直接影响。

Large areas of the ocean could also be stuck in layers, like a cake in a process called stratification.

大面积的海洋也可能被分化为数层，就像一个蛋糕一样，这个过程被称为分层现象。

The ocean does this naturally, but with currents, there's usually mixing of the surface and deep water, which circulates heat and nutrients.

这种现象本来就会自然发生在海水中，但由于有洋流的调节，通常表层和深层海水会进行混合，从而使热量和营养物质循环。

In fact, the ocean absorbs over 90% of the heat and approximately 30% of carbon dioxide emissions produced by human activities.

事实上，海洋吸收了因人类活动而产生的 90% 以上的热量，以及 30% 的二氧化碳排放量。

As the surface temperature continues to increase rapidly, it becomes less dense and less able to absorb carbon dioxide.

随着海洋表面温度持续快速上升，表层海水的密度变小，吸收二氧化碳的能力变得更弱。

And the greater the density difference between the surface and deep ocean, the slower and more difficult the mixing becomes.

而表层和深海之间的密度差越大，混合的速度越慢且难度越大。

This creates a negative feedback loop.

这就形成了一个负反馈循环。

With less mixing, more carbon stays in the atmosphere, which warms the earth's surface, which prevents more mixing and on and on.

随着混合量的减少，更多的碳便停留在大气中，使地球表面变暖，从而阻止了更多的混合，然后整个循环持续下去。

Stratification has increased 5% in the last 60 years and continues to grow.

在过去的 60 年里，分层现象增加了 5%，并仍在持续增长。

1000 years from now, since the ocean floor is spreading at a fast rate, 5 centimeters a year in the mid-Atlantic ridge, in a millennia, it will have spread a whopping 46 meters or 154 feet.

距今 1000 年之后，由于洋底正以每年 5 公分的速度在大西洋中部海脊快速扩张，到一千年后，它将扩展到惊人的 46 公尺或 154 英尺。

And in a scenario with no reductions in emissions, scientists predict that the entire Greenland ice sheet will likely melt, causing 5 to 7 meters or 17 to 23 feet of sea-level rise.

而在不减少碳排放量的情况下，科学家预测整个格陵兰岛的冰层将可能完全溶化，导致 1000 年内海平面将上升 5 至 7 米，或 17 至 23 英尺。

In 1000 years, the oceans may look like this.

1000 年后，海洋可能会看起来像这样。

But there are sponges over a mile beneath the surface that are thousands of years old.

但在海洋表面一英里下的地方，仍有存活了数千年的海绵。

They're one of the earliest animals to evolve, and my guess is that in 1000 years they'll still be going strong.

牠们是最早进化的动物之一，而我猜测在 1000年后，他们仍将继续坚强地生存下去。

But what about 10,000 years in the future?

但未来一万年后呢？

Scientists predict that if we just keep pumping out CO2, the earth will be 7 degrees warmer, meaning the oceans would rise a whopping 70 meters.

科学家们预测，如果我们仍不断地排放出二氧化碳，地球将变暖 7 华氏度，这意味着海洋将上升高达 70 公尺。

There'd be almost no mountain glaciers left in temperate latitudes. Greenland would give up all of its ice, and Antarctica would give up almost 45 meters worth of sea-level rise.

在温带纬度地区几乎不会再有山地冰川、格陵兰岛上将不会有任何的冰层，而南极洲上的溶冰将会导致海平面升高近 45 公尺。

To put this in perspective, a simple 10-meter increase would displace more than 630 million people, nearly 10% of the world's population.

从客观角度来看，单是海平面上升 10 公尺就会导致 6 亿 3 千万人，也就是将近全球 10% 的人口流离失所。

At 25 meters, 20% of humanity is left homeless.

上升 25 公尺的话，将近有 20% 的全球人口将无家可归。

Of course, our most accurate predictions, really only go to around that 100-year mark,

当然，我们最精确也只能预测到 100 年以后的未来，

not because we can't imagine that far into the future, but because there are so many variables that could change between now and then, and that's about as far as our computer models go without creating a ton of error.

但这不是因为我们想象力不足，而是存在于现在与未来间的变量实在太多，而我们的计算机模型没办法在不产出大量错误的状况下预测出这么远的未来。

But it will depend a lot on our own actions as a species, and how we take care of this planet that we're inhabiting.

但是，这在很大程度上取决于我们人类作为一个物种将如何行动，以及我们要怎么样照顾这颗我们所居住的星球。

Some of the carbon we're releasing right now could be around for hundreds, if not thousands, of years.

我们所排放出的二氧化碳可能会存在数百，甚至数千年。

And whether we take the necessary steps to create a revitalized and healthy ocean, not just in 1000 or 10000 years, but even in 30 years, is up to us.

而不只是为了一千或一万年后，甚至单只是为了 30 年后的未来，我们是否能采取必要措施，打造充满活力的健康海洋，全都取决于我们的行动。

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