a-level经济真题（A-level经济重点内容学习）
Unemployment and the Phillips Curve
Unemployment - The Basics
失业和菲利普斯曲线：失业--基础知识
For most people, an unemployed person is somebody who is not employed. Unfortunately, economists would never make it that easy! There are many people in the UK economy who are in the population of working age (i.e. aged between 16 and 65, or 16 and 60 for females) and not working, but are not 'officially' unemployed. These people are inactive members of the population of working age. They include housewives/househusbands who stay at home, students who do not get a part-time job (an increasingly diminishing group!) and those who retire early.
对于大多数人来说，失业者就是没有工作的人。不幸的是，经济学家绝不会让它变得如此简单 在英国经济中，有许多人属于工作年龄人口（即年龄在16至65岁之间，或女性在16至60岁之间），没有工作，但不是 "正式 "失业。这些人是工作年龄人口中的非活跃成员。他们包括呆在家里的家庭主妇/家庭主夫，没有找到兼职工作的学生（这个群体越来越少！）和提前退休的人。
To be an active member of the population of working age, and therefore part of the working population, you have to either be in employment or registered unemployed.
要成为工作年龄人口中的活跃成员，并因此成为工作人口的一部分，你必须是在职或登记失业。
Unsurprisingly, the activity rates for males in the UK are over 90% from age 20 onwards, although it does start to fall after the age of 50 as some workers take early retirement. Less than 80% of males are 'active' in their mid 50s, and less than 60% are 'active' in their 60s.
不足为奇的是，英国男性的活动率从20岁起就超过了90%，尽管在50岁之后，由于一些工人提前退休，活动率开始下降。不到80%的男性在50岁左右是 "活跃 "的，不到60%的男性在60岁左右是 "活跃 "的。
The female activity rates have risen as more women have decided to have careers in the last 20 years. The figure is still lower than for males, though, at around 80%, after the age of 20. This falls to below 60% as they approach retirement age in their mid 50s.
女性的活动率已经上升，因为在过去的20年里，有更多的女性决定从事职业。不过，这个数字仍然低于男性，在20岁以后，大约是80%。当她们接近50岁左右的退休年龄时，这一比例下降到60%以下。
To be registered as unemployed, you have to willing and able to work, available for work at the given wage and actively seeking work. But even the definition of being 'registered' as unemployed has changed over the years. It used to mean anyone who was claiming unemployment benefit, but the rules have changed as to which type of benefit one can claim when out of work. Many, for example, are paid disability benefit (even if their disability is relatively minor) so that the government can keep the 'official' unemployment figures down. So the official figures are probably a little inaccurate. For this reason, the government now publish figures based on a survey. Details of the two measures are outlined below.
要登记为失业者，你必须愿意并有能力工作，可以以特定的工资工作，并积极寻找工作。但是，即使是 "登记 "为失业者的定义，多年来也发生了变化。它曾经是指任何正在申请失业救济金的人，但关于一个人在失去工作时可以申请哪种类型的救济金，规则已经改变。例如，许多人被支付残疾津贴（即使他们的残疾相对较小），以便政府能够保持 "官方 "失业数字的下降。因此，官方数字可能有点不准确。出于这个原因，政府现在公布了基于调查的数字。这两项措施的细节概述如下。
This includes all those who are unemployed and actually claiming benefit in the form of Jobseekers Allowance. As we said above, claimants must be available to work, actively seeking work and able to work when the benefit is claimed.
这包括所有失业并实际申请求职者津贴形式的福利的人。正如我们上面所说，申请者必须可以工作，积极寻找工作，并且在申请福利时能够工作。
This measure is felt to be inaccurate because it omits many people who are, effectively, unemployed but are not actually claiming benefit. There have been 30 changes to the way in which this measure is counted over the last 20 years, and only one of those changes made the number rise!
人们认为这一衡量标准是不准确的，因为它遗漏了许多实际上是失业但没有实际申请福利的人。在过去的20年中，对这一措施的计算方式进行了30次修改，其中只有一次修改使这一数字有所上升！
In the late 80s, it was decided that all 16 and 17 years olds did not count, because they could either stay in education or get government training. More recently, it was decided that one could only claim Jobseekers Allowance for six months, rather than twelve. Many unemployed women do not collect Jobseekers Allowance; otherwise they cannot claim other important benefits.
在80年代末，人们决定所有16和17岁的人都不算数，因为他们可以继续接受教育或接受政府培训。最近，人们决定只能申请6个月的求职者津贴，而不是12个月。许多失业妇女没有领取求职者津贴；否则她们就不能申请其他重要的福利。
The figures are seasonably adjusted to allow for changes in unemployment that occur naturally over the year. There tends to be seasonal employment in the summer at tourist resorts and at Christmas.
这些数字是经过季节性调整的，以便考虑到一年中自然发生的失业变化。夏季的旅游胜地和圣诞节往往有季节性的就业。
Unemployment in the UK based on the claimant count in July 2000 was 1,070,000. This represented 3.7% of the working population (or workforce). This 3.7% is known as the unemployment rate. It is widely recognised as a more useful figure than the absolute numbers unemployed. A bald figure in millions can mean very little, but the unemployment rate gives a figure relative to the number of people in the workforce.
根据2000年7月的索赔人数，英国的失业率为107万。这代表了工作人口（或劳动力）的3.7%。这个3.7%被称为失业率。它被广泛认为是一个比失业的绝对人数更有用的数字。一个以百万计的光秃秃的数字可能意义不大，但失业率提供了一个相对于劳动力人数的数字。
For a more realistic count, and for international comparisons, the ILO (International Labour Organisation) measure is used. It is based on a survey, so all those that are effectively unemployed, but do not claim the highly specific Jobseekers Allowance can be included.
为了更真实地统计和进行国际比较，我们采用了ILO（国际劳工组织）的措施。它是基于一项调查，因此，所有那些有效的失业者，但不要求高度具体的求职者津贴的人都可以包括在内。
Those who are part of this measure but not included in the claimant count include the young unemployed who are not always eligible to claim, married women who can't claim if their husband is earning enough, and those who claim sickness and invalidity benefits. Many only slightly inconvenienced unemployed workers are paid these benefits rather than swell the claimant count of unemployment.
那些属于这一措施的一部分，但不包括在申请者人数中的人包括年轻的失业者，他们并不总是有资格申请，已婚妇女如果他们的丈夫有足够的收入就不能申请，还有那些申请疾病和伤残福利的人。许多只有轻微不便的失业工人被支付这些福利，而不是扩大失业的申请人数。
Not only is this measure more accurate, but it can be used for international comparisons, as this survey is taken in most developed countries. The unemployment rate using this measure for July 2000 was 5.5%.
这种衡量方法不仅更准确，而且可以用于国际比较，因为这种调查是在大多数发达国家进行的。2000年7月使用这一措施的失业率为5.5%。
Examiners often set data response questions using employment and unemployment data. Sometimes the data can be confusing; employment and unemployment levels are both rising (or vice versa). If employment levels are rising, then surely unemployment must be falling? It makes sense, doesn't it?
考官们经常利用就业和失业数据设置数据回答问题。有时候，数据会让人困惑；就业和失业水平都在上升（或者相反）。如果就业水平在上升，那么失业率肯定在下降？这是有道理的，不是吗？
Remember that the numbers in the working population are not fixed. There are currently just fewer than 29 million people in the UK working population. Just over one million of them are unemployed, so just fewer than 28 million are employed. If the numbers in the working population stay the same, and unemployment rises then employment must be falling. But what if the numbers in the working population are rising? It is possible that both the numbers employed and the numbers unemployed will rise.
请记住，工作人口的数量并不固定。目前，英国劳动人口中只有不到2900万人。其中只有100多万人失业，所以只有不到2800万的人就业。如果工作人口的数量保持不变，而失业率上升，那么就业率一定会下降。但是，如果工作人口的数量在增加呢？有可能就业人数和失业人数都会上升。
In the 80s, the numbers unemployed rose from just over one million to well over three million. But at the same time, the numbers employed rose by about one million. The answer to this conundrum is that the numbers in the working population must have risen by three million. There are two main reasons for this. At the time the number of school leavers rose substantially as an inevitable result of the baby boom of the late 60s. Also, many females came back into the workforce, working part-time as well as looking after the family.
在80年代，失业人数从刚刚超过100万上升到远远超过300万。但与此同时，就业人数却增加了约100万。这个难题的答案是，工作人口的数量肯定增加了300万。这有两个主要原因。当时，由于60年代末婴儿潮的不可避免的结果，离校生的数量大幅增加。此外，许多女性重新加入劳动力队伍，在照顾家庭的同时也做兼职工作。
International and historical comparisons 国际和历史比较A historical prospective 一个历史的前景The post-war story of unemployment has two main chapters - the period when full employment was one of the main goals of government policy (up to the 70s) and the period when it wasn't (the 80s onwards). The diagram below is a sketch showing the unemployment rate since 1950.
战后的失业故事有两个主要章节--充分就业是政府政策的主要目标之一的时期（一直到70年代）和不是这样的时期（80年代以后）。下图是显示1950年以来失业率的简图。
The diagram shows the long-term trends rather than any short run fluctuations. I think you can see from the diagram the two chapters identified above. Up until the 70s, the UK was, effectively, experiencing full employment. Although there was some unemployment (a rate of around 2%) this was accounted for almost entirely by people taking a break from employment to look for a better job.
该图显示了长期趋势，而不是任何短期的波动。我想你可以从图中看到上面确定的两个篇章。直到70年代，英国实际上一直在经历着充分就业。虽然有一些失业（比率约为2%），但这几乎完全是由于人们为了寻找更好的工作而中断了工作。
The oil shocks and trade union militancy did little to help the situation in the 70s, and the unemployment rate began to rise. But it was the 80s where we saw the real expansion in unemployment. Full employment was definitely not on the agenda. Thatcher's main goal was the control of inflation. To this end, interest rates were kept high, the £ was, therefore, also high (partly due to being a petro-currency) and so industry suffered. Some argued that there was a lot of 'deadwood' (inefficient workers) in UK industry and a good shake out was required. Productivity was low and many firms had two people doing a job that only one would be expected to do nowadays. Unemployment rose but industry became more efficient, which boded well for later years. Also, the process of deindustrialisation did not help.
石油震荡和工会激进主义对70年代的情况没有什么帮助，失业率开始上升。但在80年代，我们看到了失业率的真正扩大。充分就业绝对不在议程上。撒切尔的主要目标是控制通货膨胀。为此，利率被保持在高位，因此，英镑也很高（部分原因是由于是石油货币），因此工业受到影响。一些人认为，英国工业中有很多 "死角"（低效工人），需要好好清理一下。生产率很低，许多公司有两个人做现在只需要一个人做的工作。失业率上升，但工业变得更有效率，这对以后的日子是个好兆头。此外，非工业化的进程也没有帮助。
The boom of the late 80s saw unemployment fall quickly to 5% of the workforce (just under 1.5 million), but the subsequent recession saw the rate rise back up to 10%. The recovery that followed Black Wednesday again caused unemployment to fall steadily. The current rate of below 4% is now the lowest since the 70s.
80年代末的繁荣使失业率迅速下降到劳动力的5%（略低于150万），但随后的经济衰退使失业率重新上升到10%。黑色星期三之后的复苏再次导致失业率稳步下降。目前低于4%的失业率是70年代以来的最低水平。
Notice, though, that the rate stayed above 5% for twenty years. Many people became long term unemployed, especially those who had lost their job in a traditional industry after years of working there. Also, many young men went straight from school to unemployment and stayed there in the 'Catch 22' situation - no job without experience, but no experience without a job. A whole host of supply side policies (see the topic called 'Aggregate demand and aggregate supply') through the 80s and 90s have helped get many of the long-term unemployed back to work. The question now is, how low can unemployment go? Will it even get back down to the levels of the 50s and 60s, or do we now just have a higher 'natural rate'?
不过，请注意，该比率在20年内一直保持在5%以上。许多人成为长期失业者，特别是那些在传统行业工作多年后失去工作的人。此外，许多年轻人从学校直接进入失业状态，并在 "Catch 22 "的情况下留在那里--没有经验就没有工作，但没有工作就没有经验。通过80年代和90年代的一系列供应方政策（见 "总需求和总供应 "专题），帮助许多长期失业的人重返工作岗位。现在的问题是，失业率能降到多低？它甚至会回到50年代和60年代的水平，或者我们现在只是有一个更高的 "自然率"？
It is interesting to note that the changes in the rates of unemployment are quite similar in other countries. Nearly all countries had low unemployment after the war and they almost all saw rises in the 70s and 80s (Sweden and Japan did not). To be fair, the rise in the UK was higher than in all other countries, but the trend was similar.
值得注意的是，其他国家的失业率的变化是非常相似的。几乎所有的国家在战后都有较低的失业率，它们在70年代和80年代几乎都出现了上升（瑞典和日本没有）。公平地说，英国的上升幅度高于所有其他国家，但趋势是相似的。
Interestingly, the fall in unemployment in the 90s has not happened in all other countries. The UK and the US have seen big falls, but Germany and France have not. One feels sorry for Germany, who had to go through the unification process, but France has no excuse.
有趣的是，90年代失业率的下降并没有发生在所有其他国家。英国和美国出现了大幅下降，但德国和法国却没有。人们为德国感到遗憾，因为它不得不经历统一过程，但法国没有任何借口。
There are many reasons for the recent differences. One is that the painful decisions taken by the UK in the 80s (on the supply side) caused many job losses, but made the economy leaner and fitter for the rigours of the 90s. The labour market is now more flexible and able to adapt to changes in the structure of the economy. The fact that the economy was in good shape (creating demand for workers) also helped.
最近的分歧有很多原因。其中一个原因是，英国在80年代采取的痛苦决定（在供应方面）造成了许多就业机会的丧失，但使经济更精简，更适合90年代的严酷环境。现在的劳动力市场更加灵活，能够适应经济结构的变化。经济状况良好（创造了对工人的需求）这一事实也有帮助。
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