thelastknit最后的编织（最后的稻草thelast）

曾经的中国首富许家印没有想到，一笔一千多万的理财，竟将成为压垮他万亿帝国的一根稻草。

Xu Jiayin, once China's richest man, did not expect that a financial management of more than 10 million would become a straw to crush his trillion empire.

这就是网上流传的恒大财富总经理的提前兑付凭证。

This is the advance payment voucher of the general manager of Evergrande wealth circulated on the Internet.

从商业的角度很难理解，但是从政治角度能够清晰的看出来，许家印最后自救的大门，已经被彻底关闭。

It is difficult to understand from a commercial perspective, but it can be clearly seen from a political perspective that the door of Xu Jiayin's last self-help has been completely closed.

危机时刻，比黄金更重要的不仅是信心，更是纪律。

二战时纳粹军队一路平推到莫斯科城下，苏联的机关都搬到了大后方古比雪夫，但是斯大林本人却坚决留守莫斯科不撤退，还在红场上搞了战场阅兵。

在逆风之下，任何人都有当逃兵的想法，约束逃兵靠赏已经无效，唯一有效的是铁一般的纪律。

而一把手的以身作则，就是纪律的那一道红线。

斯大林在，秩序就在，苏联的军人们都需要无条件的死磕到底。

反之，就像抗战时国军将领一跑，麾下立即呈鸟兽散，没有谁会在一把手都逃命的时候，还愿意继续充当炮灰。

In times of crisis, more important than gold is not only confidence, but also discipline.

During World War II, the Nazi army pushed all the way under Moscow, and the organs of the Soviet Union moved to gubishev in the rear. However, Stalin himself resolutely stayed in Moscow and did not retreat. He also conducted a battlefield parade on the Red Square.

Under the adverse wind, everyone has the idea of being a deserter. It is no longer effective to restrict deserters to rely on rewards. The only effective thing is iron discipline.

The leader's example is the red line of discipline.

Stalin was there, order was there, and the Soviet soldiers needed to fight to the end unconditionally.

On the contrary, just like when the national army generals ran away during the war of resistance against Japan, they immediately scattered birds and animals. No one would be willing to continue to act as cannon fodder when the top leaders ran for their lives.

如今，恒大财富的老总在决战时，竟然偷偷的撤退，这对恒大财富的士气打击是致命的，也是不可逆的。

接下来，大家都会想尽办法抢在别人之前撤离。

因此，无论许家印再给出任何的承诺，都无法再重塑恒大财富的信心，这场踩踏的游戏，正在进入倒计时。

Now, the boss of Evergrande wealth retreated secretly during the decisive battle, which is fatal and irreversible to the morale of Evergrande wealth.

Next, everyone will try their best to evacuate before others.

Therefore, no matter what commitment Xu Jiayin makes, he can no longer rebuild the confidence of Evergrande wealth. This trampling game is entering the countdown.

很多人并不清楚，恒大财富区区几百亿，相比于恒大万亿级的各类债务，只是九牛之一毛.但是，这却是恒大的命门。

因为恒大财富的投资人，几乎都是恒大的管理层、员工、业主、供应商、贷款行雇员，是许家印最坚定的基本盘。

就像拿破仑对欧洲联军毫无惧色，对资本家可以随意违约，但却不敢对巴黎市民加税，也不敢降低近卫军的薪资，管理一个庞大的组织，最关键的是稳住基本盘。

原本已经买房的业主们为了房价的增值，只要不把他们逼上绝路，就不会集体闹事儿，手握股票的高管们为了股价的增值，只要还有一线希望，也不会轻易跳船，卖了多年房子的一线员工们，只要正常开工资，也一定会把恒大和爱马仕吹的天花乱坠。

只要保障了他们的利益，恒大欠外面多少钱，赖多少账，他们都不会觉得有问题。就像巴黎市民和近卫军支持拿破仑那样，基于共同的利益，恒大的基本盘也都会誓死捍卫许家印。

可是他们一旦认为许家印把刀口向内，损害他们自身利益的时候，觉得自己真金白银变成了“金圆券”，他们必然会奋起反抗，带头站在老东家的对立面之上。

反观远如乐视贾跃亭拿到白武士的钱后，选择优先偿还金融机构和投资人，而不是优先乐视员工和供应商，在一片骂声中黯然出国。近如几内亚原总统竟然敢对食品和燃油加税，并削减精英卫队的薪资，然后就遭遇了军事政变。

刀口向内，会让当年他们最坚定的支持者，变成了他们最大的反对派。

反之，只要保住了基本盘，也就保存了翻盘的希望。

譬如拥有着强大基本盘支持的拿破仑战败之后，欧洲列强没人敢杀他，只能将其流放，而拿破仑凭借着基本盘的支持，又从厄尔巴岛一路进军巴黎完成复辟。

譬如传至三代的隔壁，宁可不要国际信用，随意赖掉瑞典瑞士等国的债务，也要保障平壤市民的生活水平，那怕是全民都在苦难前行，也要保障先军政策的实施。

譬如被联军沙漠军刀揍趴下的萨达姆，凭借着巴格达市民与共和国卫队，愣是从90年代的后海湾战争时代，撑到了2003年。

Many people don't know that Evergrande's wealth is only tens of billions, which is only a fraction of Evergrande's trillion level debt. However, this is Evergrande's lifeblood.

Because the investors of Evergrande wealth are almost Evergrande's management, employees, owners, suppliers and loan bank employees, which is Xu Jiayin's most firm basic offer.

Just as Napoleon had no fear of the European coalition forces and defaulted on the capitalists at will, he did not dare to raise taxes on the citizens of Paris or reduce the salary of the guards. The key to managing a huge organization is to stabilize the basic market.

In order to increase the value of house prices, the owners who have already bought houses will not make trouble collectively as long as they are not forced to a dead end. The executives holding stocks will not jump ship easily as long as there is a glimmer of hope for the appreciation of stock prices. The front-line employees who have sold houses for many years will certainly boast about Evergrande and Hermes as long as they pay normally.

As long as their interests are protected, they will not feel any problem with how much money Evergrande owes and how much it owes. Just as the citizens of Paris and the guards supported Napoleon, based on the common interests, Evergrande's basic plate will also swear to defend Xu Jiayin to the death.

However, once they think that Xu Jiayin's knife edge is inward and damages their own interests, they feel that their real gold and silver have become "gold coupons". They are bound to rise up and take the lead in standing on the opposite of their old owner.

It's like Lao Jiang defeated Lin Biao and Nie Rongzhen's main force in 46 years and successively occupied Zhangjiakou, Yan'an. However, with the inflation sweeping the country and the fatal impact on the basic plate of the national government, the fighting spirit of the army was relaxed and the offensive and defensive momentum was reversed.

As far as the long march and as close as the southern tour, whether the desperate situation can always kill a path of blood depends on whether the top leaders focus on the basic plate.

On the contrary, after getting the money from Bai samurai, LETV Jia Yueting chose to give priority to financial institutions and investors rather than LETV employees and suppliers, and went abroad in a gloomy voice. For example, the former president of Guinea dared to raise taxes on food and fuel and cut the salaries of elite guards, and then suffered a military coup.

The knife edge inward will turn their strongest supporter into their biggest opposition.

On the contrary, as long as we keep the basic plate, we will save the hope of turnover.

For example, after the defeat of Napoleon with strong basic support, no one in the European powers dared to kill him and could only exile him. With the support of the basic support, Napoleon marched all the way from Elba to Paris to complete the restoration.

For example, the next door to the three generations would rather not have international credit and arbitrarily rely on the debts of Sweden, Switzerland and other countries. It is also necessary to ensure the living standards of Pyongyang citizens. Even if the whole people are suffering, it is also necessary to ensure the implementation of the military first policy.

For example, Saddam Hussein, who was beaten down by the coalition army's Desert Saber, with the citizens of Baghdad and the Republican Guard, was stunned from the era of the deep gulf war in the 1990s to 2003.

历史无数次的告诉了我们，对于恒大来说，哪怕是万亿债务违约，都不会造成致命伤， 硬撑过去也许还能看到曙光。

但是，这一轮恒大财富危机的意外爆发，将恒大最坚定的基本盘都推到了对立面上，如果许家印不能完美解决，恒大就将回天乏术，神仙难救了......

History has told us countless times that for Evergrande, even a trillion debt default will not cause fatal injury, If we stick to it, we may still see the dawn.

However, the unexpected outbreak of this round of Evergrande wealth crisis has pushed Evergrande's most firm basic plate to the opposite. If Xu Jiayin can't solve it perfectly, Evergrande will have no way to return to heaven and the gods will be difficult to save……

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