太阳有没有机会得到杜兰特（为什么太阳队押宝杜兰特是一个值得的机会）

Many times, when a new owner takes control of a team, they want to stamp their mark on it in a big way. Let’s call it “New Owner Syndrome.”

The best recent example of this came over the offseason with the Minnesota Timberwolves moving heaven and earth to acquire Rudy Gobert for four first-round picks, a future pick swap, their recent first-round pick Walker Kessler, Jarred Vanderbilt and others. The sheer amount the Wolves gave up to get Gobert caught many in the league by surprise.

很多时候，当新老板接管一支球队时，他们想在球队上大展宏图。我们称之为“新主人综合症”。

最近最好的例子是在休赛期，明尼苏达森林狼队用四次首轮选秀权、未来选秀权互换、今年的首轮秀沃克凯斯勒、贾里德范德比尔特和其他人获得了鲁迪戈贝尔。狼队为了得到戈贝尔而付出的巨大代价让联盟中的许多人大吃一惊。

The latest case of New Owner Syndrome, however, might be an all-time version.

The ink finalizing the 29-0 vote on Tuesday that approved Mat Ishbia as the new Phoenix Suns governor may not yet have been completely dry by Wednesday night when he green lit what could go down as the most monumental deal in NBA trade deadline history. The Suns are acquiring superstar forward Kevin Durant in a trade that will at the very least rival the team’s acquisition of Charles Barkley in 1992 as the most important deal in the franchise’s history. It’s hard to imagine a more emphatic way to prove to everyone in and around the NBA that you mean business.

然而，太阳成了新主人综合症的最新案例。

周二以 29 比 0 的投票结果批准马特伊什比亚担任菲尼克斯太阳队新任老板，刚刚接手的第二天，他就为这笔可能成为 NBA 交易截止日历史上最具里程碑意义的交易开了绿灯。太阳队交易得到超级巨星前锋凯文杜兰特，这笔交易至少可以与球队在 1992 年收购查尔斯巴克利相媲美，成为球队历史上最重要的交易。很难想象有比这更有力的方式来向NBA内外的每个人证明你是认真的。

To acquire one of the best players in NBA history, the Suns gave up an enormous haul. The team dealt its unprotected first-round draft picks in 2023, 2025, 2027 and 2029, a 2028 pick swap, and forwards Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson and Jae Crowder. The Suns also are reportedly getting T.J. Warren in the deal.

为了得到 NBA 历史上最好的球员之一，太阳队放弃了巨大的代价。球队交易了 2023、2025、2027 和 2029 年未受保护的首轮选秀权，以及 2028 年的选秀权互换，以及前锋米卡尔布里奇斯、卡姆约翰逊和杰克劳德。据报道，太阳队在交易中也得到了TJ 沃伦。

Questions will always be asked anytime a team gives up a package of assets that substantial — especially when the player being acquired is 34 years old and has dealt with a number of injuries, including a torn Achilles, over the last few years. There will always be questions when a new owner makes a move like this too, with people around the league wondering if they really understand the value that comes with these selections.

But here’s the other thing that matters, and it might be the only thing that matters:

It’s Kevin Durant.

每当一支球队放弃一大笔资产时，总会有人提出疑问——尤其是当被收购的球员已经 34 岁并且在过去几年里经历过多次伤病，包括跟腱撕裂。特别新老板也做出这样的举动时，会带来更多疑问 ，联盟中的人想知道他们是否真的理解这些选择带来的价值。

对于选秀权来说，太阳唯一重要的事情：是凯文杜兰特。

Durant was my pick for MVP before his MCL sprain in January. He was carrying a Nets team on his back that had gone through an immense amount of adversity once the season started – from a coaching change to Kyrie Irving’s suspension in November for a minimum of five games without pay after he posted a link to a documentary promoting antisemitic views on his social media accounts, then repeatedly refused to apologize for doing so. At the time of Durant’s injury, the Nets were 27-13 following a disastrous 2-6 start.

In the team’s previous 20 games, they’d ripped off 18 wins as Durant averaged 31 points, seven rebounds and five assists on an absurd 59.4 percent from the field, 43 percent from 3 and 96.5 percent from the line. In addition, he was pairing wonderfully with Nic Claxton to carry the Brooklyn defense to a top-10 mark in the league. There was nobody on Earth playing better than Durant.

在一月份膝盖扭伤之前，杜兰特是我挑选的 MVP。他背负着整支网队，这支网队在赛季开始后经历了巨大的逆境——从教练更换到凯里欧文在 11 月被禁赛至少五场比赛，他在自己的社交媒体账户上发布了宣传反犹主义观点的纪录片链接后，多次拒绝为此道歉。在杜兰特受伤时，网队在 2-6 的灾难性开局后战绩回到了27-13。

在球队之前的 20 场比赛中，他们取得了 18 场胜利，杜兰特场均得到 31 分、7 个篮板和 5 次助攻，投篮命中率高达 59.4%，三分球命中率为 43%，罚球命中率为 96.5%。此外，他与克拉克斯顿的完美搭档将布鲁克林的防守带到了联盟前 10 名。地球上没有人比杜兰特打得更好。

And the Suns aren’t your typical team. They been arguably the most consistently successful one over the last two-plus seasons, reaching the NBA Finals in 2021 and winning a league-high 64 games last season before Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks unceremoniously dispatched them in the second round. Even though they’ve taken a slight step back this year, the bones of those teams were always there. The Chris Paul–Devin Booker-Bridges-Johnson-Deandre Ayton lineup had outscored its opponents by 22 points in a limited sample, per PBPStats. The team went 7-3 in its first 10 games, winning five of those games by 13 or more points, before Paul went down with his heel injury. Even with the 30-26 record, you could make a case for the Suns being among the West’s best.

太阳队是最近的典型球队。他们可以说是过去两个多赛季以来最成功的一支球队，他们在21 年进入了 NBA 总决赛，并在上赛季赢得联盟最高的 64 场比赛，之后卢卡·东契奇的独行侠在第二轮毫不客气地淘汰了他们。尽管他们去年有所退步，但保留住了球队的核心成员。克里斯保罗-德文布克-布里奇斯 - 约翰逊-德安德烈艾顿。根据 PBPStats，阵容在有限的样本中比对手高出 22 分。在保罗因脚后跟受伤倒下之前，球队在前 10 场比赛中取得 7-3 的战绩，其中五场比赛以 13 分或更多的优势获胜。即使目前只有 30-26 的战绩，你还是可以证明太阳队是西部最好的球队之一。

As the Suns started to learn this year due to the Booker and Paul injuries, you never know how long a contention window is going to last. Paul is not getting any younger. Booker has entered his prime years. Ayton has playoff experience. If you have a genuine chance to win a title, and you also have a chance to acquire someone like Durant, it’s a move you have to swing, regardless of cost. The team learned that lesson the hard way last season when it chose not to make a significant deadline acquisition to bolster its chances. That ended in heartbreak.

由于布克和保罗的受伤，太阳队今年开始吸取教训，你永远不知道竞争窗口会持续多久。保罗不再年轻了。布克已经进入了他的巅峰时期。艾顿有季后赛经验。如果你真的有机会赢得总冠军，而且你也有机会得到像杜兰特这样的人，那么你必须不惜一切代价采取行动。太阳在上个赛季选择不在赛季中期通过交易补强球队，最后以惨痛的方式吸取了这一教训。

Instead of packing it in following a messy offseason and a mixed start to this season, the Suns went the other way. They went bold and brave. Potentially, they went stupid if this doesn’t result in a championship, given what they traded away.

That line between bold and stupid can often be thin — and sometimes out of your control. Durant and Booker are still injured, and the team will need a clean runway of health at some point in the next 10 or so games to get rhythm and experience together. The Suns will need Paul, Booker and Durant to stay healthy throughout the playoffs, which is no guarantee.

太阳队没有在混乱的休赛期和本赛季喜忧参半的开局后完善球队，而是走了另一条路。他们大胆而勇敢。考虑到他们交易的东西，如果这不能带来冠军，他们可能会变得愚蠢。

大胆和愚蠢之间往往在一线之间——有时甚至超出你的控制范围。杜兰特和布克仍然在养伤，球队需要在接下来的 10 场左右的某个时候恢复健康，一起寻找化学反应。太阳队将需要保罗、布克和杜兰特在整个季后赛中保持健康，但这并不能保证。

Having said that, everything on the court says this deal should work quite quickly. Durant has played with both Booker and Paul at separate Olympics and within USA Basketball ecosystems. There should be some comfort there already.

Durant is not some past-tense former star hanging onto his status by a thread. He’s dominating. And he’s doing so in ways that translate incredibly well toward playing with other stars. If stars have trouble playing with one another, it tends to be because there is only one ball to go around. Sometimes, figuring out how to share is hard. But in Durant’s case, that’s not nearly as much of a concern. Durant currently averages 67 touches per game — just 43rd in the NBA — and is a top-10 scorer in terms of points per touch. He’s 96th in the NBA in dribbles per touch and is outside of the top 50 in terms of time of possession.

话虽如此，目前的一切都表明这笔交易应该会很快奏效。杜兰特在国家队已经与布克和保罗一起打球。国家队的成功应该已经有些安慰了。

杜兰特并不是某个紧紧抓住自己地位的过去式前球星。而且他打球的方式非常适合与其他明星一起打球。平时球星抱团出现困难，往往是因为只有一个球。所以，分配球权就变得很难。但就杜兰特而言，这几乎不是什么大问题。杜兰特目前场均触球 67 次——在 NBA 中仅排名第 43 位——并且在每次触球得分方面排名前10。他的每次触球运球数在 NBA 中排名第 96，而在控球时间方面则排在前 50 之外。

He’s ruthlessly efficient when he gets the ball and almost impossible to guard. Durant is so big, has such a high release point and such elite touch that you can’t do anything to impact him on defense. He’s shooting a higher percentage from the field than he ever has before, at 55.9 percent. And he is an assassin from everywhere in the midrange. Durant is making 57.1 percent of all of his midrange shots; ythe second-best percentage among the 54 players who have taken at least 100 midrange shots is D’Angelo Russell at 51.1 percent. Durant is six points better than the person in second place. He’s 10 points better than Paul in 11th place (Booker is just tenths of a percentage behind him at 46.7 percent). He’s completely mastered the art form.

当他拿到球时，他的效率非常高，几乎无法防守。杜兰特太高了，有如此高的出手点和如此出色的手感，以至于你无法做任何事情来影响他。他的投篮命中率比以往任何时候都高，达到 55.9%。而且他是中距离无处不在的刺客。杜兰特的中距离投篮命中率为 57.1%；在至少出手 100 次中距离投篮的 54 名球员中，排名第二的是拉塞尔 ，命中率为 51.1%。杜兰特比第二名的人高6个点。他比排在第 11 位的保罗高10个点（布克也以 46.7% 的命中率落后他十个点）。他完全掌握了中距离的艺术。

If he sees you’re experienced and jumpy, he’ll jab step and rip you until you get back on your heels. Below, Chicago’s Patrick Williams takes t

he slightest step backward, almost imperceptible if you’re not paying close attention to his feet and center of gravity. But once he did that, he was dead. The ball wasn’t even going to consider hitting the rim.

如果他看到你有经验且动作很多，他会猛踩一步欺骗你，然后直接颜S你。下面，芝加哥的帕特里克威廉姆斯向后退了一步，如果你不密切注意他的脚和重心，几乎察觉不到。但一旦他那样做，他就死定了。球直接空心入网。

If you’re too small, like Atlanta’s Dejounte Murray, Durant is going to post you up and hit a fadeaway that you have zero chance to contest. Among the 37 players in the NBA with at least 70 post-up shots this season, Durant shoots the second-highest percentage, behind only Nikola Jokić.

如果你个子太小，比如亚特兰大的德章泰穆雷，杜兰特会背身单打，然后后仰跳投，对手防守机会为零。在本赛季至少有 70 次低位投篮的 37 名球员中，杜兰特的投篮命中率位居第二，仅次于尼古拉·约基奇。

If Durant gets a big on an island in a switch, good luck sticking with his bag of tricks. Cleveland’s Jarrett Allen has developed into a terrific big when he gets strung out on and island, yet there’s nothing he can do here after Durant puts him through the blender with multiple crossovers and a behind-the-legs dribble, all of which are low to the ground with twitchy hesitation.

如果杜兰特挡拆后面对的是大个子防守者，那么祝你好运，不要被他晃倒。克利夫兰的贾勒特艾伦已经成长为一个了不起的大个子，但在杜兰特通过多次交叉运球迷惑对手，艾伦根本就无能为力，稍有犹豫就被杜兰特颜S。

There’s nothing anybody can do to guard Durant. The only option is to throw multiple players at him to stop him from getting the ball in places that he wants it, which is what Boston successfully did last year in the playoffs. The Nets didn’t have any recourse for the Celtics doing that because the team wasn’t talented enough around him.

任何人都无法单防杜兰特。唯一的选择是让多名球员阻断他​，阻止他在他想要的地方拿到球，这是波士顿去年在季后赛中成功做到的。网队对凯尔特人队这样做没有任何办法，因为球队在他身边的天赋不够。

Typically, Durant makes his teammates around him even better because his presence draws attention away from them. With Durant on the court in their three seasons in Brooklyn, Irving had a 58.3 effective field goal percentage, per PBPStats.com. Without Durant, Irving posted a 55.3 effective field goal percentage. Claxton had a 64.4 effective field goal percentage with Durant off the court in those three years and a 74.7 effective field goal percentage with him on. Joe Harris shot better. Patty Mills shot better. It’s not an accident.

通常情况下，杜兰特会让他周围的队友变得更好，因为他的出现会分散防守的注意力。根据 PBPStats.com 的数据，在杜兰特在布鲁克林的三个赛季中，欧文的有效投篮命中率为 58.3%。没有杜兰特，欧文的有效投篮命中率为 55.3%。在这三年里，当杜兰特不在场时，克拉克斯顿的有效投篮命中率为 64.4，而当他在场时，有效投篮命中率为 74.7。乔哈里斯和米尔斯投篮变得更好。这不是意外。

That effect was the same in Golden State, maybe the most applicable situation to this one given the Warriors’ star-laden roster at the time. During those three Durant seasons, Stephen Curry had a 61.2 effective field goal percentage with Durant on the court and a 57.3 mark with him off the court. Klay Thompson had a 57.6 effective field goal percentage with Durant on the court and a 55.3 mark when he was off. Draymond Green had a 52.4 effective field goal percentage with Durant and a 46.7 mark without him.

这种效果在勇士也是一样的，考虑到当时勇士队星光熠熠的阵容，我们很容易忽略这种情况的情况。在杜兰特的那三个赛季中，斯蒂芬库里在杜兰特在场时的有效投篮命中率为 61.2，在他不在场时为 57.3。当杜兰特在场时，克莱汤普森的有效投篮命中率为 57.6，当他下场时为 55.3。德雷蒙德格林在有杜兰特的情况下有 52.4 的有效投篮命中率，没有他时为 46.7。

Having Durant is going to make things easier for Booker and Paul. For as good as Booker is — and he’s great — Durant is going to get the toughest on-ball defender every night. The floor should be more open for Ayton on rolls and for Paul on drives. With three guys as elite as Paul, Booker and Durant as shooters, it’s hard to see how an opponent defends this group. All three can space the floor when one of them has the ball, and Ayton is also there to crash toward the rim to suck in the defense.

There are a few things, however, that will need to be proven by this group on the court. I wouldn’t go as far as to say they’re flaws; just questions.

拥有杜兰特会让布克和保罗的比赛变得更容易。特别是像布克一样出色的球员，杜兰特每晚都会被对手最优秀的持球防守者盯防。空间变得更开放，让艾顿在切入和保罗在突破上更自如。拥有保罗、布克和杜兰特三个明星球员作为射手，很难看出对手如何防守这群人。当其中一人持球时，这三人都可以拉开空间，艾顿则冲向篮筐以吸收防守。

然而，有几件事需要这个组合在球场上证明。我不会说它们是缺陷；只是问题。

First, the Suns in this three-year run have not put a ton of pressure on the basket. They were 26th in free-throw attempt rate last season and are 27th this year. They’re second-to-last in the league in percentage of attempts that come at the rim, per PBPStats. Durant, for all his gifts, won’t exactly help that. How much will it matter? I’m not sure it will, given that midrange shots are essentially like half-court layups and dunks for Durant. But it’s worth noting.

首先，太阳队在这三年的比赛中并没有给内线制造太大的压力。他们上赛季的罚球命中率排名第 26，今年排名第 27。根据 PBPStats，他们在篮下的尝试占投篮的百分比在联盟中倒数第二。杜兰特尽管有很多天赋，但并不能完全帮助他们。而且杜兰特大部分投篮是中距离和三分。这是值得注意的一点

Second, the defense will also change. The Suns don’t have Bridges to unleash on the opposing team’s best player every night, which could lead to guys like Paul and Durant having to take on more difficult assignments. The team’s defensive infrastructure and rotational timeliness should be on point with the length they’ll still have on the court between Ayton and Durant. But they’d love if someone could step into a role taking tough assignments. Phoenix has guys like Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie, and the offense should be so good now that the Suns might be able to withstand having a substantially negative offensive player like them out there. But if the Suns are going to look for one addition before the season ends — either via trade or the buyout market

其次，防守也会发生变化。太阳队没有布里奇斯每晚去对付对方最好的球员，这可能会导致像保罗和杜兰特这样的球员不得不承担更艰巨的任务。球队的防守轮换的及时性应该与他们在艾顿和杜兰特之间的上场时间保持一致。但如果有人能承担艰巨的防守任务，他们会很高兴。菲尼克斯拥有像托里克雷格和约什奥科吉这样的球员，现在太阳队的进攻应该非常好，太阳队可能需要这样的球员给予球队防守帮助。如果太阳队打算在赛季结束前寻找一名新援——无论是通过交易还是买断市场。

Speaking of needing another defender, the team does lack depth now. “The Homie” Dario Šarić has been resurrected recently and has given the team some good run. Over his last 14 games, he’s averaging 9.4 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists while making almost 44 percent of his 3s. Jock Landale has been useful as a backup center. The newly acquired Warren has been OK in stints, averaging 10 points on efficient shooting over his last 20 games in 20 minutes per night. It seems like Damion Lee hasn’t missed a shot this season. But the depth is lacking, especially defensively.

另一个是球队现在阵容缺乏深度。萨里奇最近复出，并为球队带来了不错的帮助。在过去的 14 场比赛中，他场均得到 9.4 分、5.7 个篮板和 2.5 次助攻，三分球命中率接近 44%。乔克·兰代尔 ( Jock Landale ) 作为替补中锋很有用。新收购的沃伦在一段时间内表现还不错，在过去的 20 场比赛中，他场均上场 20 分钟，场均得到 10 分。达米安李本赛季投篮很准。但在防守端是个漏勺。

Teams that want to beat the Suns are going to have to outscore and out-gun a team led by Durant, Booker and Paul — a trio of multi-level scorers who can get their shots in such versatile ways. You need to have three high-level perimeter defenders to deal with this trio, or else one of them is going to get loose. Those plus defenders also need to be able to keep up offensively. As of Thursday morning, that team, on paper, doesn’t exist in the West. If that remains the case, the Suns should be the clear favorites to reach the Finals, all because they were willing to take an enormous swing.

想要击败太阳队的球队将不得不在得分上击败由杜兰特、布克和保罗领衔的球队——这三位得分高手能够以各种方式终结进攻。你需要有三名高水平的外线防守者来对付这三人组，否则其中一个就会松动你所有的防线。再加上防守者也需要能够在进攻端跟上。截至周四上午，西部没有能够在理论上限制他们的球队。如果情况确实如此，太阳队应该是进入总决赛的明显热门，这一切都是因为他们愿意做出巨大的改变。

It’s officially title-or-bust in Phoenix for at least the next two seasons. The Suns need to finish the job. And if they get and stay healthy, the Suns will have every opportunity to achieve that goal sooner rather than later.

至少在接下来的两个赛季里，菲尼克斯都是冠军的主要争夺者。如果他们能保持健康，太阳队将有机会早日实现这一目标。

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