清洁能源投资趋势（Economist双语笔记清洁能源）

Renewable energy

Clean energy’s dirty secret

The renewables revolution is wrecking the world’s electricity markets. Here’s what to do

可再生能源

清洁能源的肮脏秘密

可再生能源革命正在破坏全球电力市场。以下是应该去做的事

ALMOST 150 years after photovoltaic cells and wind turbines were invented, they still generate only 7% of the world’s electricity. Yet something remarkable is happening. From being peripheral to the energy system just over a decade ago, they are now growing faster than any other energy source and their falling costs are making them competitive with fossil fuels. BP, an oil firm, expects renewables to account for half of the growth in global energy supply over the next 20 years. It is no longer far-fetched牵强的/不着边际的 to think that the world is entering an era of clean, unlimited and cheap power. About time, too.

光伏电池和风力发电机发明近150年后，它们的发电量仍只占全球总量的7%。然而，某些显著变化正在发生。十多年前可再生能源还是次要的能源系统，但现在它们的增长速度超过其他任何能源，成本的下降也使之能够与化石燃料相抗衡。石油公司BP预计，未来20年内可再生能源将占全球能源供应增长的一半。认为世界正在进入一个清洁、廉价和电力无限供应的时代的想法已不再是天方夜谭。而且也是时候了。

There is a $20trn hitch, though. To get from here to there requires huge amounts of investment over the next few decades, to replace old smog-belching打嗝/吐出 power plants and to upgrade the pylons and wires that bring electricity to consumers. Normally investors like putting their money into electricity because it offers reliable returns. Yet green energy has a dirty secret. The more it is deployed, the more it lowers the price of power from any source. That makes it hard to manage the transition to a carbon-free future, during which many generating technologies, clean and dirty, need to remain profitable if the lights are to stay on［生动/可遇不可求的表达］. Unless the market is fixed, subsidies to the industry will only grow.

不过在此之前还需借20万亿美元的东风。要跨进未来的电力时代，在未来几十年内还需大量投资，以取代喷烟吐雾的老旧发电厂，并升级向消费者输电的电缆塔和电线。由于回报可靠，投资者通常喜欢投资电力行业。然而，绿色能源有一个肮脏的秘密。绿色能源部署越多，就会把其他来源电力的价格打压得越低。这让向无碳未来的过渡变得很难管理，因为在这期间，许多发电技术不论清洁与否都需要保持盈利，才能保证电力供应。除非能解决市场问题，否则对电力行业的补贴只会增长。

hitch：

A hitch is a slight problem or difficulty which causes a short delay. -

柯林斯高阶

Policymakers are already seeing this inconvenient truth as a reason to put the brakes on renewable energy. In parts of Europe and China, investment in renewables is slowing as subsidies are cut back急转方向/减少. However, the solution is not less wind and solar. It is to rethink how the world prices clean energy in order to make better use of it.

政策制定者已经把这一“难以忽视的真相”视为限制可再生能源的理由。在欧洲部分地区和中国，由于补贴减少，对可再生能源的投资正在放缓。不过解决问题的方法不是减少风能和太阳能，而是要重新思考清洁能源的定价问题，以便更好地利用这些能源。

inconvenient：

Something that is inconvenient causes problems or difficulties for someone.

- 柯林斯高阶

Shock to the system

At its heart, the problem is that government-supported renewable energy has been imposed on a market designed in a different era. For much of the 20th century, electricity was made and moved by vertically integrated, state-controlled monopolies. From the 1980s onwards, many of these were broken up, privatised and liberalised, so that market forces could determine where best to invest. Today only about 6% of electricity users get their power from monopolies. Yet everywhere the pressure to decarbonise power supply has brought the state creeping back into markets. This is disruptive for three reasons. The first is the subsidy system itself. The other two are inherent to the nature of wind and solar: their intermittency and their very low running costs. All three help explain why power prices are low and public subsidies are addictive.

系统震撼

问题的核心是，政府支持的可再生能源被强加在一个设计于不同时代的电力市场上。在20世纪的大部分时间里，电力都是由垂直整合的国有垄断企业生产和传送。20世纪80年代开始，很多垄断电力企业被拆分、私有化和自由化，让市场力量可以决定最佳投资方向。如今，只有约6%的用户由垄断企业提供电力。然而，各地要求低碳电力供应的压力让国家的影响又重新蔓延到各个市场之中。这是具有破坏性的，原因有三：第一是补贴制度本身；另外两个原因与风能和太阳能自身的特点有关：这两种能源是间歇性供应的，且运行成本非常低。这三点都有助于解释为什么电力价格低，而公共补贴却难以戒停。

First, the splurge挥霍 of public subsidy, of about $800bn since 2008, has distorted the market. It came about for noble reasons—to counter climate change and prime the pump for new, costly technologies, including wind turbines and solar panels. But subsidies hit just as electricity consumption in the rich world was stagnating because of growing energy efficiency and the financial crisis. The result was a glut of power-generating capacity that has slashed大幅削减/挥砍 the revenues utilities earn from wholesale power markets and hence deterred investment.

首先，2008年以来的公共补贴高达8000亿美元左右，扭曲了市场。补贴的理由很崇高：应对气候变化，推动昂贵新技术的应用，包括风力发电机和太阳能电池板。然而，由于能源效率的提高和金融危机的影响，富裕国家的电力消费停滞不前，而补贴恰逢此时。结果便是发电能力过剩，这大大减少［别老decrease可好］了电力公司在电力批发市场上的收入，从而阻碍了投资。

Second, green power is intermittent. The vagaries异想天开/怪异多变 of wind and sun—especially in countries without［视角转换］favourable weather—mean that turbines and solar panels generate electricity only part of the time. To keep power flowing, the system relies on conventional power plants, such as coal, gas or nuclear, to kick in when renewables falter蹒跚［可遇不可求］. But because they are idle for long periods, they find it harder to attract private investors. So, to keep the lights on, they require public funds.

第二，绿色能源的供应有间歇性。风和太阳变化无常（特别是在天气条件不利的国家），令风电机组和太阳能电池板只能在部分时间发电。为了保持电力持续供应，电力供应系统仍需依赖传统发电厂（例如火电厂、天然气电厂或核电站）在可再生能源供应不足时顶上。但由于传统发电厂长期闲置，吸引私人投资者变得更加困难。因此，为了保证电力供应，它们就需要公共资金补贴。

kick in：

If something kicks in, it begins to take effect. If someone kicks in a particular amount of money, they provide that amount of money to help pay for something.

- 柯林斯高阶

Everyone is affected by a third factor: renewable energy has negligible or zero marginal running costs—because the wind and the sun are free. In a market that prefers energy produced at the lowest short-term cost, wind and solar take business from providers that are more expensive to run, such as coal plants, depressing power prices, and hence revenues for all.

第三个因素影响整个电力行业：可再生能源的边际运行成本可谓微不足道，甚至为零，因为风和太阳光是免费的。电力市场更喜欢以最低短期成本生产出来的能源，风能和太阳能便从运行成本更高的电力供应商（如火电厂）手中抢走了生意，压低了电价，结果大家的收入都减少了。

边际成本（MTI百科/缩略语）

：在经济学和金融学中，边际成本指的是每一单位新增生产的产品（或者购买的产品）带来的总成本的增量。 这个概念表明每一单位的产品的成本与总产品量有关。比如，仅生产一辆汽车的成本是极其巨大的，而生产第101辆汽车的成本就低得多，而生产第10000辆汽车的成本就更低了（这是因为规模经济带来的效益）。 但是，考虑到机会成本，随着生产量的增加，机会成本也可能会增加。还是这个例子，生产新的一辆车时，所用的材料可能有更好的用处，所以要尽量用最少的材料生产出最多的车，这样才能提高边际收益。边际成本简写为MC或MPC。

- 喵大插楼

Get smart

The higher the penetration of renewables, the worse these problems get—especially in saturated markets. In Europe, which was first to feel the effects, utilities have suffered a “lost decade” of falling returns, stranded assets and corporate disruption. Last year, Germany’s two biggest electricity providers, E.ON and RWE, both split in two. In renewable-rich parts of America power providers struggle to find investors for new plants. Places with an abundance of wind, such as China, are curtailing wind farms to keep coal plants in business.

动动脑筋

可再生能源的渗透率越高，这些问题就越严重，尤其是在饱和市场。欧洲首当其冲，那里的电力行业经历了“失落的十年”——收益下降、资产搁浅、企业拆分。去年，德国两大电力供应商意昂集团（E.ON）和莱茵集团（RWE）都一分为二。在美国可再生能源丰富的地区，电力供应商很难为新电厂找到投资。 像中国这样风能充沛的地方正在缩减风电场以保证火力发电厂得以为继。

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The corollary必然结果/推论［别老result］is that the electricity system is being re-regulated as investment goes chiefly to areas that benefit from public support. Paradoxically, that means the more states support renewables, the more they pay for conventional power plants, too, using “capacity payments” to alleviate intermittency. In effect, politicians rather than markets are once again deciding how to avoid blackouts. They often make mistakes: Germany’s support for cheap, dirty lignite caused emissions to rise, notwithstanding尽管 huge subsidies for renewables. Without a new approach the renewables revolution will stall.

结果是，投资主要流向了受益于政府支持的领域，而电力系统正在重新受到监管。吊诡的是，国家对可再生能源的支持越多，对传统发电厂的补贴也就越多，因为政府需要支付“保持产能费用”来缓解清洁能源间歇性供电的问题。实际上，现在又换成政客而不是市场来决定如何避免停电了。然而政客却经常犯错：德国尽管对可再生能源提供巨额补贴，但仍支持低价、肮脏的褐煤发电，导致排放量上升。没有新的方法，可再生能源革命就会后劲不足。

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最后两段，自己来阅读 翻译一下？看看提高了没？有几个语言点在上文出现过的哦！

The good news is that new technology can help fix the problem. Digitalisation, smart meters and batteries are enabling companies and households to smooth out their demand—by doing some energy-intensive work at night, for example. This helps to cope with intermittent supply. Small, modular power plants, which are easy to flex up or down, are becoming more popular, as are high-voltage grids that can move excess power around the network more efficiently.

The bigger task is to redesign power markets to reflect the new need for flexible supply and demand. They should adjust prices more frequently, to reflect the fluctuations of the weather. At times of extreme scarcity, a high fixed price could kick in to prevent blackouts. Markets should reward those willing to use less electricity to balance the grid, just as they reward those who generate more of it. Bills could be structured to be higher or lower depending how strongly a customer wanted guaranteed power all the time—a bit like an insurance policy. In short, policymakers should be clear they have a problem and that the cause is not renewable energy, but the out-of-date system of electricity pricing. Then they should fix it.

好消息是新技术可以帮助解决这个问题。数字化、智能电表和电池使公司和家庭能够调节需求，例如在夜间做耗电多的工作，这有助于应对间歇性电力供应的问题。小型模块化的发电厂容易调节发电量，高压电网也可以更有效地在电网上调配多余的电力，这些也都变得越来越受欢迎。

更严峻的任务是重新设计电力市场，以反映对灵活供需的新需求。市场应更频繁地调整价格，以体现天气的波动。在电力极端稀缺的时候，可以启动高固定电价来防止停电。市场应该像奖励多发电的电厂那样，奖励愿意少用电的人或机构来平衡电网。电费账单上的电价可以根据客户对24小时供电保证需求的意愿上调或下降，有点像保险单那样。总之，政策制定者应该明白他们遇到了问题，但原因并不出在可再生能源上，而是过时的电价制度。然后他们就该解决问题了。

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