高盛预计美国经济衰退（多家国际金融机构预测）

近日，包括富国银行、德意志银行、美国银行等金融机构纷纷预测，美国经济衰退难以避免。美国的通胀率正处于40年来的最高点，美联储表示，将尽力降低通胀，使得经济软着陆。但也有人担心，美联储过于激进地加息可能会使经济陷入衰退。

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on May 18, 2022 in New York City. [Photo/Agencies]

Wells Fargo's CEO said there's "no question" of an economic downturn in the US, and a recession looks difficult to avoid.富国银行首席执行官查理·沙夫表示，美国经济“毫无疑问”会下滑，且经济衰退似乎难以避免。

Speaking to The Wall Street Journal's "Future of Everything Festival" on Tuesday, Charlie Scharf said, "It's going to be hard to avoid some kind of recession."沙夫5月17日在《华尔街日报》举办的“未来生活节”上称，“要避免某种衰退是很难的”。

He said businesses and consumers are still strong, but the world is reacting to the Federal Reserve as it raises interest rates to tame surging inflation.他表示，企业和消费仍然强劲，但世界正在对美联储提高利率以遏制不断飙升的通胀作出反应。

"You've got the Fed saying the economy is running too hot, that we need to slow economic growth," Scharf said. "Rates are going to rise, and it's going to change the dynamic of the health of the consumer and business over a period of time." He added that this strength would deteriorate.沙夫表示：“美联储称经济过热，我们需要放缓经济增长。加息将在一段时间内改变消费者和企业的健康活力。”他还认为，这种影响程度还将恶化。

US inflation is running at 40-year highs, and the Fed is under pressure to control it before it harms the economy. But there is concern the central bank could tip the economy into a recession by hiking rates too aggressively. The Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points in May, the biggest increase at one meeting in 22 years. It also signaled that similarly aggressive rate hikes would follow.美国的通胀率正处于40年来的最高点，美联储正面临压力，要在通胀损害美国经济之前控制住通胀。但也有人担心，美联储过于激进地加息可能会使经济陷入衰退。今年5月，美联储将利率上调50个基点，这是22年来最大幅度的一次加息。美联储还释放出将继续大幅加息的信号。

Bank of America and Deutsche Bank say the US is certain to enter into recession. Lloyd Blankfein, a former CEO of Goldman Sachs, also warned of a high of risk of recession for the US economy this week. He said companies and consumers should prepare for it. He also said the Fed would have to slow demand and slow the economy by hiking rates to control inflation, adding, "And that's going to involve some pain."美国银行和德意志银行认为，美国肯定会陷入衰退。高盛投行前首席执行官劳埃德·布兰克费恩本周也警告称，美国经济衰退的风险很高。他表示，企业和消费者应该做好准备。他还表示，美联储将不得不通过加息来控制通胀，从而减缓需求和经济增长，他还表示，“这将带来一些痛苦”。